10-31 观点类 – 社会话题
Whether or not someone achieves their aims is the most of the question of luck. To what extent do you agree or disagree?
题目大意：
有观点称个人的成功与否主要看运气。同意反对？
思路：
一般同意反对类的题目，都是一个比较武断的结论，选择反对的立场比较合
这道题目中的关键词是the most of the question of luck —— 即是一种表达。因此，建议取反对的立场，并在论证中推翻题目中对于运气和成功的过度强调，指出成功源自多种因素的共同作用。
反驳的结构：主体段-1：站在出题者的角度，分析对方为何会这样想；主体段-2：针对对方的理论漏洞予以反驳，再给出我的理论，并予以证明。
提纲梳理如下：
范文：
There is an assumption that fortune is the key to personal achievements. Personally, I would say it is an erroneous conclusion because the advocates of this claim ignore alternative determinants relevant to this issue in discussion.
It is not surprising why luck is deemed pivotal to successful careers. Those who think in this way opt to attribute what they have achieved in life or work to serendipity, whether these be an interview for a job or university application, passing an exam or becoming celebrities overnight; all these experiences are recognized as the result by chance. Examples regarding this logic can be seen in movie and music industry, where hundreds of actors or rock bands become superstars overnight simply because of one blockbuster movie or hit song. In this respect, fatalists go as far as to assume that it is chance that overwhelms other factors as the key to success.
Plausible though the logic seems, it is not justified enough to venerate luck over anything else in one’s career. The problem with the above reasoning is that the conclusion is based on the generalization of the premise – I won’t see the rise and fall of life as the simple result of chance factors; rather, any achievements we have reached are the outcomes of complex interplay between different factors that act conjointly. Back to the example of the rock star, rather than ascribing those legends to a hit single or record, how can we turn a blind eye to other determinants such as years of struggle and marketing campaigns of record companies – had it not been the promotion of Columbia records, Bob Dylan might not be as lucky as he seemed.
It is my conclusion therefore, how successful we are is not correlated solely with fortune, while what we have reached is a result of complex causal configurations.
