Whether or not someone achieves their aims is the most of the question of luck. To what extent do you agree or disagree?
题目大意
有观点称个人的成功与否主要看运气。你在多大程度上同意或不同意？
思路解析
万圣节考的题目果然不一般，很多同学看到这种抽象类话题，先反应就是：这是什么鬼。然后感慨一下，自己的运气果然不好，所以雅思考不出来。
其实，这道题目本质上是“成功的主要原因有哪些”这个问题的变种，那我们来看下，获得成功需要哪些因素？
“运气”当然有，所有考鸭都希望自己的那场考试能够简单点，没有rap、没有奇怪的口音、没有地图题和流程图、匹配题也没有，对吧~
但是万一真有那么一场考试放在你面前，你要是没好好复习过是不是还是可能会考不出？
所以成功还需要“天赋”、“态度认真”和“勤奋努力”。
如果你有语言天赋，从小英语就好，那可能不需要怎么复习就能轻松拿到雅思7分。但是很多考鸭没有天赋怎么办，那就只能靠认真和勤奋，考试前每天复习了几小时？剑桥是不是都认真刷完了？口语题目有没有都准备？情报圈那么多写作和范文有没有看完和练习过？
雅思考试如此，想在学业、事业和生活上获得成功也是如此，很多时候是综合运气、天赋、认真、勤奋和抉择多方面因素才达成的。
这道题目中的关键词是the most of the question of luck ——是一种表达。因此，建议取反对的立场，并在论证中推翻题目中对于运气和成功的过度强调，指出成功源自多种因素的共同作用。
反驳的结构：主体段-1：站在出题者的角度，分析对方为何会这样想；主体段-2：针对对方的理论漏洞予以反驳，再给出我的理论，并予以证明。
提纲
范文示例
There is an assumption that fortune is the key to personal achievements. Personally, I would say it is an erroneous conclusion because the advocates of this claim ignore alternative determinants relevant to this issue in discussion.
It is not surprising why luck is deemed pivotal to successful careers. Those who think in this way opt to attribute what they have achieved in life or work to serendipity, whether these be an interview for a job or university application, passing an exam or becoming celebrities overnight; all these experiences are recognized as the result by chance. Examples regarding this logic can be seen in movie and music industry, where hundreds of actors or rock bands become superstars overnight simply because of one blockbuster movie or hit song. In this respect, fatalists go as far as to assume that it is chance that overwhelms other factors as the key to success.
Plausible though the logic seems, it is not justified enough to venerate luck over anything else in one’s career. The problem with the above reasoning is that the conclusion is based on the generalization of the premise – I won’t see the rise and fall of life as the simple result of chance factors; rather, any achievements we have reached are the outcomes of complex interplay between different factors that act conjointly. Back to the example of the rock star, rather than ascribing those legends to a hit single or record, how can we turn a blind eye to other determinants such as years of struggle and marketing campaigns of record companies – had it not been the promotion of Columbia records, Bob Dylan might not be as lucky as he seemed.
It is my conclusion therefore, how successful we are is not correlated solely with fortune, while what we have reached is a result of complex causal configurations.
相关词汇和语法结构
Determinant 决定因素
Fortune / Serendipity 运气
Celebrity 名人
Blockbuster movie 畅销电影
Fatalists 宿命论者
Attribute / Ascribe 归咎于
Generalization 武断观点
